Circle of Kakis

Source.

Quote:Singapore's economy emerges from recession in Q2

Singapore says economy jumps 20 percent in second quarter, raises 2009 growth forecast
By Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer
On Monday July 13, 2009, 11:45 pm EDT

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Singapore's economy grew for the first time in a year, soaring 20 percent in the second quarter, a sign Asia is emerging from the global slump.

Gross domestic product jumped an annualized, seasonally adjusted 20.4 percent in the three months through June from the previous quarter, the Trade and Industry Ministry said Tuesday in a statement. It said GDP fell 3.7 percent from year earlier after a 9.6 percent drop in the first quarter.

The ministry now expects the Southeast Asian city-state's economy to shrink between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, better than its previous forecast of a contraction between 6 percent and 9 percent.

"The Singapore economy is back and back with a vengeance," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asia economist for HSBC in Singapore. "We very much doubt that today's Singapore GDP release will be the last in Asia to provide a sizable upside surprise."

The island's economy -- which relies on exports, finance and tourism -- had contracted the previous four quarters as it reeled from a collapse in global trade triggered by the financial crisis. An annualized 16.4 percent drop in the October-December period was the nadir of its deepest recession since splitting from Malaysia in 1965.

Singapore is the first major Asia economy to report second quarter GDP results. The second quarter GDP estimate was calculated using data largely from April and May and is subject to revision.

The ministry revised its first quarter economic figures to an annualized contraction of 12.7 percent from its initial estimate in April of a 19.7 percent contraction.

A surge in pharmaceutical production helped boost growth in the second quarter. Manufacturing fell 1.5 percent from a year ago compared to a 24 percent contraction in the first quarter. Construction rose 18 percent in the second quarter while services dropped 5.1 percent.

The ministry warned that the rebound in manufacturing could wane over the rest of the year.

"A sizable part of Singapore's manufacturing uptick came from a spike in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics inventory restocking, both of which may not be sustained," the ministry said.

Demand for exports from the U.S., Europe and Japan remains weak, but Singapore's sales to Indonesia, Malaysia and China have picked up, said Irvin Seah, an economist with DBS bank in Singapore.

"The main driver for this recovery has been our exports to the region," Seah said. "We're seeing strong demand from Asia, especially China."

"Asia is showing signs that it is able to drive its own demand, which is a good sign for the region's

Bah...that is because Q1 was so bad, so Q2 soared. Let me translate it.

Compared with last year, there is still a drop, although not so bad. Furthermore, it is boosted by pharmaceutical (thanks to H1N1?) and construction (government projects - they are even upgrading lifts in oppostion parties ward). Good news is that there is increase in manufacturing output as well.

Also, to put the unemployment low, government hire a lot. The "3000 teachers hired, quota met" shows that MOE will not hire any more teachers the rest of the year, since they already took in a lot of people to keep unemployment low. Last week I looked at ST701 job section, 6 out of 10 jobs are from LTA. I wonder how many percentage of the population work in public sector now. Goverment also in talks with Sands over the delay in opening of IR, because they also factor in this is directly linked to unemployment rate. When IR opens, probably have election or something (wild guess, I am not concern about politics).

Source.

Quote:NTUC says slowdown in GDP contraction does not mean recovery in sight

Channel NewsAsia - Wednesday, July 15SINGAPORE: Singapore’s economy has pulled out of a technical recession, after four straight quarters of contraction.

Advance estimates showed that on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP in the second quarter rose by 20.4% compared to the first quarter. However, the economy contracted by 3.7% on—year in the second quarter.

The government has revised its GDP forecast for the year upwards to a contraction of 4 to 6 per cent, against its earlier forecast for a 6 to 9 per cent shrinkage.

But the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) said a full recovery is not yet in sight, and has urged firms and workers to remain vigilant.

NTUC deputy secretary—general, Heng Chee How, said: "If you ask the companies on the ground — whether manufacturing or services — they will actually tell you that compared to the first quarter of this year, in the second quarter towards the middle of the year, they have better visibility, so some manufacturing companies say they now have orders up to July or September.

"But they will also tell you that... we cannot assume that just because the second quarter is better than the first, therefore the third and the fourth will be better than the second."

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) also continues to expect a weak recovery with downside risks for the rest of the year.

"If you look at the MTI forecast, they are now revising it (2009 GDP outlook) to minus four to minus six percent contraction. That, compared to any year, is still a very serious recession. I think we should work on that basis and continue to invest in our skills and capability as it is the competitiveness that will see us through," said Mr Heng.

The labour movement said a key priority for the tripartite partners is to ensure that companies continue to take training and retraining seriously.

Hence, the tripartite teams will continue to visit the industries and companies to emphasise the importance of the Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience (SPUR) and how they can take advantage of it.

That's the smart part, media all report a reduction in the contraction and some pple may not understand that a lower contraction is STILL a contraction...

Btw, GDP is only one of the many indicators but our govt always like to use it as compared to other KPIs. As stated in my quotes in other thread, there are still many unfortunate pple in the country who are suffering but all these are not reported in local media. I think like all coys, pple always show the best pictures and hide the mess under the carpet...

After all, it's all but just a forecasted GDP.. By making such a bold statement as to saying that Singapore has indeed pulled out of a technical recession is too far fetched based on some estimates is not very convincing for me...

It is not bold statement, it is a technicality. If you got 3 consecutive negative growth, it is considered recession. Since the positive growth, it is no longer a recession. Strange thing is they use the word "technical" recession. It is bad but they still do not want to admit it?

probably to attract more investments into the country? *shrugz*

aiya.. is all propagande... saying dis to calm ppl down nia....

The market is looking out for positive news. A slowdown in the contraction does not mean that we're out of the woods. As can be seen in the article, the message is "looking good, but we're not there yet". Typical CYA statement.

The good thing is that the mood swings, coupled with earnings season. is a a good time for those who trader to make some money. I'm personally still of the opinion that we have yet to see a larger correction (hence more on the short side), but in the meantime, just ride the good news! :)

Are we really on the road to recovery? I have not get my 10% pay cut leh!

Quote:A surge in pharmaceutical production helped boost growth in the second quarter.

Now I know why Swine Flu came out....to help BOOST Economy!!

Actually the pharmaceutical industry is getting worse, but maybe better off than other industries or better than what they expected.

It means "better", but it's still bad. OK, better than bad.

(16-07-2009 12:42 PM)darthyduck Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:A surge in pharmaceutical production helped boost growth in the second quarter.

Now I know why Swine Flu came out....to help BOOST Economy!!

You know this might actually be true, considering the current swine flu spreading around seems really only as potent as the seasonal flu we get every year.

Who cares? As long as it helps the economy.
In such a bad economy state, you need something big to disctract people.
Better flu than war.